Would you trade Fitz and No.1 pick for better (L)luck?

(WECK 1230) — I had a revelation this morning about “Fitzmagic.” As many of you know, I want Ryan Fitzpatrick to play better and better and better (So do Bills fans, I assume). With his smarts, humility and beard, if he could develop into an actual franchise quarterback it would clearly be a delicious casserole with an extra side of awesome sauce.

A lot of Bills fan live on the other side of the line, at least to a degree. Every time Fitz does better, it detracts from the idea that the Bills could draft a new college stud that could be world class — or awful, but that’s another story for another day.

tHere’s a simple question to help you you decide how you feel about Fitz:

If the draft was today, the Bills would select No. 5 overall. Would you trade Fitzpatrick andĀ  the No. 5 pick to Carolina for Andrew Luck?

Forget if Carolina would do it, or what minor peripheral sacrifices it would take (swap of second-round picks, a third-round pick, etc.). Would you do it?

Take it further, to eliminate annoying digressions, feel free to substitute Cam Newton of Auburn and the ability to deal Fitz and No. 5 to move up and select him. Would you do it?

My gut feeling is, “No, I wouldn’t,” but I’ll listen to all sides, especially when you start asking, “Would other teams do it?” In today’s NFL, would any team give up a guaranteed decent player and a Top Five pick for the potential for greatness?

Would the Pats trade both of their No. 1s for the Andrew Luck pick? Would Belichick trade Brady for the pick? Both of those are better than what the Bills can offer, but would you be absolutely stunned if he did either?

So here’s the thing: Yes, the long-term future matters, but doesn’t the short-term? I bet there’s a large faction of Bills fans who want Fitz to start until Rookie Option A is ready to take the reigns, but Buffalo may be better off with Fitz and the Nos. 5, 37 and 59 picks going LB, OL and DL in any order.

In essence, trading for Luck would be most likely trading next year. Are you willing to almost guarantee no playoffs for a 12th season? History shows us that almost every rookie quarterback won’t have a better season than FitzĀ  had this year. Vote in the poll to the right.

There are a ton of facets to this I’ll save for the air tonight, including what labor means to the pick. We’ll talk about it with a guest from Carolina and some others. “The Late Nick Mendola” program airs from 7-10 p.m. EST on WECK1230.com, and featured a great local guest at 8 p.m. for Craft Beer Talk, as Flying Bison Brewing Company’s own Tim Herzog hits our studio to chat up and offering tastings for three of his local brews. It’s going to be fun.

Either way, we can at least pump another listen of our unofficial “Fitzmagic” song through your speakers.

15 Responses to Would you trade Fitz and No.1 pick for better (L)luck?

  1. 12 of the past 15 Super Bowls have been won by Hall of Fame or potential HoF QBs (including Roethlisburger and Brees). The non-wins were all behind ferocious defenses (Eli Manning on a sequence of miracle plays, Trent Dilfer, and Brad Johnson). Only two Super Bowls the past 15 years have not featured a HoF/pHoF QB (Dilfer vs Collins, Johnson vs Ganon). When HoF QBs play non-HoF QBs, their record is 8-1, with the sole loss being 18-1. Having great franchise QBs to win Super Bowls is a must. The numbers don’t lie. Sure, exceptions to the rule exist, but I want the Bills to be great, not just a flash in the pan. (I go into more depth on this in the website I provided).

    Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that guy? Is he a potential HoF candidate? Probably not. Is he the kinda guy who could hold you over until you find that great QB? Yup. Him and a first for Luck is a no-brainer though. Having a great franchise QB brings a tremendous level of stability to an organization (e.g., Colts, Steelers, Patriots, Saints). I remember reading Donohoe wanted Brees badly, but couldn’t/wouldn’t swing a trade to get him. Imagine how much better off this franchise would be if Brees was the QB. If Luck is potentially the next great franchise QB, and it certainly appears he could be that guy, you can’t miss on an opportunity to get him.

  2. i think you’d be a fool to take (almost) guaranteed above-average quarterback play over the potential for legitimate greatness. take fitz and my entire 2010 draft and give me a top-five quarterback in the league any day. i’ll throw in lee evans if i have to. that position means that much more than any other on the field. andrew luck may end up being a complete bust, but i sincerely doubt it. he looks like the best college quarterback i have seen since peyton manning.

    i like fitz and i’d prefer to keep him around. in fact, i think with his intellect and knowledge of the game, he’d be an excellent mentor to an elite talent. i just don’t think we’ll be a real contender with him manning the ship. i have no faith in our ability to build the 1985 bears defense to balance out pretty good quarterback play.

  3. The Bills need a couple lb’s, rt, and a def end. our best bet would be to trade back and pick up an extra 2nd for another another top 60 player. the pats managed to get mccourty, hernandez, gronkowski, spikes, and that def end all in the first few rounds and all are starting. we need to take a page from the pats and get multiple picks from the top few rounds and turn those guys into starters. guys like byrd, wood, levitre, moats etc that are less financial risk but are bringing high reward on the field.

  4. The Pats are wise to collect 2nd round picks which are much cheaper alternatives. As always, Mr. Belichick was ahead of the curve. The difficulty is high since you need to wisely trade into those positions, and you need to draft very well since drafting useful players after the 30th pick drops to roughly 40%. The problem is the Bills don’t have Mr. Belichick in their front office, they have elderly nincompoops.

  5. 40% ? I would like to see some data on that as I just glanced at the past few drafts and it looks more like 70-90% are decent players with Hardy being one of those misses. I am not saying we will get pro bowl type players but you can very easily get solid starters in that round each year. Those are the picks that make your team.

  6. One thing I have to yell at Mendola and the kids about:

    Locker is a lock to go in the 2nd, possibly 3rd round? You have no idea what you’re talking about. I doubt any of you have ever watched him play football. I will eat the hat on my head if he is not selected by 15th overall. You cannot simply go by what the media is saying in this case, especially the ESPN conglomerate. They have limited Pac-10 rights and always don’t give due to sports they can’t show (Hello, hockey fans). Also, the media irrationally sides with players on winning teams. You could put Cameron Newton in UW and he would lose many football games. You do not understand how bad they are.

  7. Blue Jays would be more fitting. :) A few years of good play, but mostly junk. And a moron GM that says Adam Dunn hates baseball and would never have him on his team. Die JP Ricciardi. And the Bills will be moving there in ~3 years…

  8. After watching Luck play all season, I would not only give up Fitz and the number 5 overall pick, I’d throw in the Jills too. The Ball Boy, our Equipment Manager, the pilot who flies our plane, the guy who washes the towels( and leaves them with that fresh scent), and even 5 or 6 of the guys who shovel out Rich Stadium (oops sorry) Ralph Wilson Stadium when the snow flies. However, this is an academic question. Unless Carolina decides that someone like McNabb would be a better pick up over Luck (a decision only Mike Shanahan would make) then they will draft Luck and make their Super Bowl Reservations within 5 years.

    The question you should be asking is who would you take at number 5. Locker or Newton? Which is a better fit for Gailey’s system?

    PS I’m not sure having a rookie QB means we don’t make the playoffs either. Flacco and Ryan made it to the playoffs in their rookie years and Roethlisburger even won the SuperBowl as a rookie. So it can happen even if admittedly it happens rarely.

  9. rapistberger went 15-0 as a starter in the regular season of his rookie year, but lost in the afc title game to the pats. he had the superbowl handed to him by the officials in his second year. just saying.