Trying to cement trade value isn’t easy, but I’ll try

(WECK 1230) –Let me apologize in advance for this random Sunday musing, because it’s kind of a brain-acher (If that doesn’t stop you from reading, what will?).

I’ve been looking for the right “in” to attempt this column for a while, and I’ve found a nice half-assed one, so here goes. Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal has reported the Sabres would love to offload Tim Connolly after a disappointing playoff, but will have a tough time finding suitors for his $4.5 million contract (The report also lists Drew Stafford as a movable piece, though Edmonton may not be the promising rumour-locale it has been as his uncle was relieved from his post as longtime equipment manager).

Rumour-chasers will often come to the forefront with ridiculous ideas. In the past few days alone, I read of a deal that had Jarome Iginla coming to Buffalo for Derek Roy, Henrik Tallinder and a prospect. First of all, Tallinder is a UFA, so it’d be a trade for a UFA’s rights, a prospect and Roy. Highly unlikely.

Second of all, Roy has better trade value than maybe anyone on the team not named Myers or Miller. At a $4 million cap hit until 2013, Roy is crazy inexpensive for a team looking to add a guaranteed 25-goal, 75-point player, particularly one who turns 27 this week.

Here in Buffalo, we’re tired of a lot of assets like Roy. So, for the rumour-mongers and rumour-lovers — like me — how about matching up some of our assets to the rest of the league’s?

For example, would you give up for a 26-year-old borderline star center coming off a career-high in goals and helpers? What would you trade for Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler, who notched 25 goals and 75 points this year? Kesler’s cap-hit goes up markedly when his four-year, $20 million extension kicks in this summer, but his numbers — aside from size — aren’t much different than Roy. Another good comparison in contract size, prior performance and 2010 disappointment is St. Louis’ Brad Boyes, who is a $4 million hit through 2012 and regressed horribly this past season.

What is Drew Stafford worth? This one’s a little harder to pin down. A lot of guys who are 23 with a 20-goal season on their belt are alluring to general managers. Ones who got benched during the playoffs and will make $2.3 million before becoming a free agent in a year are not. We’ll have to look at both scenarios and find a middle ground.

In the latter case, it’s hard to believe Stafford would have much more value than Clarke MacArthur did to Atlanta at the deadline, though No. 41 is an RFA now as opposed to Stafford’s on more season. So, would a third-round pick instead of a fourth be worth giving up on the potential the Sabres have seen in Stafford? I find that hard to believe, fortunately or unfortunately, so Stafford may stay here unless he’s part of a package or someone really loves him. MacArthur’s never scored 20, but is coming off his best statistical season.

In a the better, potential scenario, you could compare Stafford numbers-wise to Chicago’s Dustin Byfuglien. The Blackhawk will make $3 million before becoming a restricted free agent after next season. Any team who wants Byfuglien has to weigh whether his best work has been the product of an offensive environment or if he’s a player ready to bust out.

Next up: Tim Connolly. In what is a super indictment on Connolly’s two-year, $9 million deal, it’s very difficult to find a forward — injury-riddled or other — who matches up with the center. Connolly is a 28-year-old bonafide talent with a bunch of question marks, both performance and effort-related. The closest comparison I can find is Justin Williams, and that only matches up in terms of age, injury and money. The Kings’ forward has one year left at $3.5 million and has struggled to stay healthy over the course of his entire career. He’s twice scored 30-plus goals, but has only played more than 60 games four times in a 10-year career. He, too, is 28.

As time goes by, maybe I’ll find values for some other guys, but this was way more work than I wanted.

So, if you want to get really nerdy, the next step would be seeing what you’d get in return. This requires a return to a sort of subjectivity. What would you give up for Brad Boyes or Ryan Kesler? How about Justin Williams? Those sorts of players are likely the quality you’d get in return for dealing your Boyes, Kesler or Williams.

Again, this is just a Sunday experiment, but it was fun. What do you think?

Email: nickonweck@gmail.com