Slow Down With the Abysmal Projections
July 29, 2010 | Author Nick
Not one, not two, but three surefire HOFers.
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(WECK 1230) — Precious few people expect the Bills to make a playoff push in their first season under Chan Gailey, and there is very little reason to have such lofty goals other than the NFL’s “Anything Can Happen” rule. Those who are predicting a doomsday season that finds the club at the top of the Jake Locker sweepstakes come next April are setting themselves up for confusion.
The Bills went 6-10 last year with a myriad of injuries and horrible coaching. They lost a starting tackle before the season took off its diapers, fired an offensive coordinator before the season started and lost their starting running back to stupidity early in the season. All that, and they went 6-10.
And you think it’ll get worse?
Precious few teams make more than a two-game improvement over the course of two seasons. Those that do likely have a massive change pass or fail. For example, it’s unlikely the Redskins will finish 4-12 with Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan running things instead of Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn. Conversely, the Eagles may lose some of their 11 wins while Kevin Kolb learns how to be an every day quarterback, but he’d have to be a disaster to see the team dip too far down in the win column.
If you think the Bills should’ve done better than 6-10 because of schedule, perhaps that’s valid, but let’s take a look at the team’s ideal roster from the course of 2007 to this season, when they went 7-9, 7-9, 6-10 and TBA:
Worse than this, people?!?
QB: 07- J.P. Losman, 08-Trent Edwards, 09-Trent Edwards, 10-Edwards/Fitzpatrick/Brohm
Analysis: Pick your poison. Push.
RB: 07- Marshawn Lynch, 08- Lynch, 09- Fred Jackson, 10-C.J. Spiller/Jackson/Lynch
Analysis: My vote is this year, regardless of starter.
WR: 07- Lee Evans, Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish; 08- Evans, Reed, Parrish; 09- Evans, Terrell Owens, Reed; 10- Evans, Steve Johnson, James Hardy.
Analysis: 2009 was the best. Bills will miss Josh Reed more than you think.
TE: 07- Robert Royal, 08- Royal, 09- Derek Schouman, 10- Shawn Nelson
Analysis: Nelson is already the biggest talent of the bunch.
OL:
07- Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Melvin Fowler, Brad Butler, Langston Walker
08- Peters, Dockery, Fowler, Butler, Walker
09- Demetrius Bell, Andy Levitre, Geoff Hangartner, Eric Wood, Kirk Chambers
10- Bell, Levitre, Hangartner, Wood, Cornell Green
Analysis: You could argue for any of the lines, but 2007 Jason Peters had to be as good a season by a lineman as the Bills have seen since Ruben Brown patrolled the field.
Worse than this???
Defense is a little harder in that the Bills will be running a 3-4. This is likely the fallback for folks who think Buffalo much worse in 2010.
SS- 07- Donte Whitner, 08- Whitner, 09- Bryan Scott, 10- Whitner
Analysis: Come on.
FS- 07- Jim Leonhard, 08- Ko Simpson, 09- Whitner, 10- Jairus Byrd
Analysis: No question Leonhard was neither the player he is now nor utilized as such. Byrd was in the running for rookie of the year, even with questionable tackling practices.
CBs- 07- Terrence McGee/Jason Webster; 08- McGee/Jabari Greer; 09- McGee/Leodis McKelvin; 10-McGee/McKelvin
Analysis: One of the biggest crimes of both the Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron regimes was ignoring everyone who could see quite clearly that Greer was the best defensive back in camp year-in and year-out. Jason Webster? Yeesh.
Worse than this loss?
LBs-
07- Paul Posluszny, Angelo Crowell, Coy Wire/John DiGiorgio
08- Kawika Mitchell, Posluszny, Keith Ellison
09- Mitchell, Posluszny, Ellison
10- Kelsay, Posluszny, Mitchell, Maybin/Schobel
Analysis: Hard to pick a winner, but I dare you to tell me you wouldn’t wager on the 3-4 working better than any of those other three joys.
DTs- 07- Kyle Williams/Larry Tripplett; 08- Marcus Stroud/Williams; 09- Stroud/Williams; 10- Williams
DEs- 07- Chris Kelsay/Aaron Schobel; 08- Schobel/Kelsay; 09- Schobel/Kelsay; 10- Stroud/Dwan Edwards
Analysis: This is where the 3-4 doesn’t look as appealing. Last year’s line was pretty solid, ranking among the league leaders at their proper position in tackles.
What does this tedious exercise say heading into today’s opening practice? Unless you believe Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix are imbeciles and the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins have improved that significantly, the Bills probably fit between four and eight wins in the so-called unpredictable NFL. I don’t think the Dolphins are all that good unless Chad Henne impresses a ton, but we’ll leave that for the predictions in a month or so. Let’s just say I’d put the Bills at six or seven wins in 2010. They may lose a game they shouldn’t (Detroit, Jacksonville) or upset a team (Pats, Bears). The Bengals signing of Owens puts that in the loss column for me, but who knows?
It’s the NFL. Forget about Locker (unless he, too, surprises and fails).
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
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Tags: 6 Responses to “Slow Down With the Abysmal Projections”
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I agree why focus on the abysmal projection when clearly sub-par is well within striking distance. Can’t wait to come back to tailgate.
But what if we WANT that top-5 pick? LockerLockerLockerLocker. ;-)
(Semi-)kidding aside, while you mentioned “horrible coaching” at the top, I’d be interested to read your breakdown of Jauron v. Fewell v. Gailey to match the position-by-position stuff. Gailey’s game-management skills can’t possibly be any worse than DJ’s, can they?
Please tell me that I will never again watch a team, down by a point but driving at the end of the game, burn more than a minute off the clock to set up a long-distance field goal into the wind instead of trying to get inside the 35. (Yes, I’m still torqued about that Cleveland MNF game. Closest I’ve ever come to punching out a window when I got back to the parking lot.) So if Gailey doesn’t do anything that grievously stupid, he has to be worth a win or two by himself, no?
That said, until a complement to Lee Evans emerges and either Bell or Meredith proves to be a legitimate NFL left tackle, it’s tough to find more than six wins on the schedule. And as one of your colleagues recently told me, if the team is fun to watch (Spiller should help) but still ends up drafting high enough to nab one of those top QBs, maybe that’s not such a bad thing …
Bills will miss Josh Reed more than you think.
Josh had a fine career here, and was one of the better slot WRs in the game, but last year was painful. It was time for him to go and play his role on a team with a chance.
Nelson is already the biggest talent of the bunch.
Royal was a decent blocker, though. I’d rather have that from my starting TE.
You could argue for any of the lines, but 2007 Jason Peters had to be as good a season by a lineman as the Bills have seen since Ruben Brown patrolled the field.
Yeah, that’s why ’07 was clearly the best line. Along with Dockery and Walker being run blocking monsters. You don’t seem to realize how much Demetrius Bell sucks.
Come on.
Hater. Whitner may have been a terrible pick at #8, but he’s still the best safety on the team. Bryan Scott can’t cover anyone. George Wilson is too slow to play in the NFL.
You know who the Bills will really miss after seeing this 3-4 screw up this defense. Dick Jauron. If there’s one thing he could do, it’s coach a secondary full of scrubs.
One of the biggest crimes of both the Mike Mularkey and Dick Jauron regimes was ignoring everyone who could see quite clearly that Greer was the best defensive back in camp year-in and year-out. Jason Webster? Yeesh.
Ok, I love Jabari Greer. Believe it or not, I put the Saints as a legitimate Super Bowl contender when they obtained him. But, the Cover 2 was the absolute wrong fit for Greer. His strength is in somehow getting the job done man-to-man despite his small size.
Hard to pick a winner, but I dare you to tell me you wouldn’t wager on the 3-4 working better than any of those other three joys.
Keith Ellison is still on this team. Why.
And, no, I will not wager on this 3-4 defense. It is a disaster waiting to happen. Maybin/Poz/Davis/Whoever. Again, the days of the pass defense saving us are gone.
Unless you believe Chan Gailey is an imbecile
I do. For good reason.
the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins have improved that significantly
The Dolphins have with Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby. I don’t like how the Jets signed a bunch of name players that really don’t help them, but you have to guess that Sanchez will improve from last year. And the Patriots still have Mr. Belichick who can outcoach the Bills in his sleep.
I don’t think the Dolphins are all that good
Please explain why you hate the Dolphins so much this year.
or upset a team (Pats
Lol no.
Forget about Locker (unless he, too, surprises and fails).
If you want real excitement, not a phony version like Terrell Owens, hope for Jake Locker.
Locker’s stats aren’t impressive but you can’t ignore the skills he brings to the table. A rocket arm with the rumored 4.4 speed. Even if that isn’t true, Locker is a mobile guy.
@Leelee
1) Royal was a waist of space.
2) Since when was Dick Jauron our secondary coach, and ‘scrubs’? Really? Our secondary is our strong point of this team and actually one of the better ones in the league. Why do you think Nix and Gailey stated that’s the one are they weren’t going to touch. Stats talk.
3) Whats your good reason for Chan being an imbecile? Not just, ‘for a good reason’. Is it because he only had 1 losing season every year that he has been a head coach? Or was it because he took a cowboy team that finish 6-10 in 97′ under Switzer and went 10-6 in 98 to win the division with him? Oh it must have been that Jerry Jones said firing him was the biggest mistake he ever made in football.
Seriously please tell me you don’t have a career doing this.
4) Really the patroits got better? How so? Losing more veterans on an already aging team is getting better? They already showed last year they arent the team they once where, and now Welker is already having injury problems this year. Who did they draft……. dont worry I’ll wait. The dolphins got Brandon Marshall who yes is a great talent, but lets see if he can stay in line. Dansby is as overrated as it gets. He got name time for being on a team that went from bad to good. The cardinals still had a mediocre at best defense last year, Packers vs Cards anyone? Besides easy to have a better defensive ranking when your offense is one of the best in league and is top 10 in time of possession. The team that actually improved the most is the Jets which is scary, and you cant acknowledge that? Yea LT is a bad thing to have as a backup running back and Cromartie doesn’t help them? If you can afford to bring Jason Taylor in as a back up pass rusher yea your team is that good, and thats a good pick up too. Then you bring in Brunell and Coles to be player coaches. Yea they did nothing.
Your obviously a Dolphins fan. Its ok though.
Oh Reed one of the better slots in the game? 6th on S.D. depth chart.
To Nick- Im with you buddy. Tired of people thinking we are going to be terrible. Yea I dont think we are going to be good, but are we really worse off this year then any of these others? Especially last year? 7-9 here we come again. The march for mediocracy is back, at least for 1 more year ;)
Good points. If on the off-chance the Bills are downright abysmal (first 3 picks in the draft), I’d rather take Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett. The guy’s a stud, has awesome fundamentals and a hell of an arm, and has performed extremely well against some of the country’s best defenses. I firmly believe that he could be a franchise QB somewhere, and though I don’t want us to be in a position to pick him, I’d be giddy to have Mallett behind center.
As for the Locker love, it amazes me how teams can be so enamored with measurables while ignoring or downplaying actual performance. Yeah, Jake Locker makes a great QB on paper, but having seen the guy play, I don’t buy into the hype. He does have speed, but his decision making is questionable as a passer. His injury history is also of major concern. I wish him well, but Locker isn’t even a first round pick IMO.