UB Football 2010: Predictions and Preview
WECK GAME NIGHT: UB vs. Rhode Island, 7 p.m., UB Stadium (WECK1230).
(WECK 1230) — Once you’ve gone to a bowl game, there is no other goal for a college program regardless of how many starters you lose. The seniors don’t want to hear about building up the team, or a new coach or a let down.
To be sure, the Bulls could’ve made it two bowls in a row in 2009 if they could’ve won one more game, and there were a bunch of tight ones. Quarterback Zack Maynard had miserable games in touchdown losses at Central Florida and home to Central Michigan. In the case of the latter, when you can hold the Chipps to 20 points, you need to win that game.
After moving to 3-4, the Bulls lost three consecutive games by a grand total of… seven points. Yep, 2.33 points-per-game with a freshman, somewhat-scatterbrained quarterback and a head coach in Turner Gill whose balls-to-the-wall gambles and quiet bravado cost the team some awful field position and game clock.
Now new coach Jeff Quinn’s bravado is there, just not even close to quiet. His spread offense will be in the hands of strong-armed playbook-worm Jerry Davis to start the year, a talented kid whose thrown just 15 passes in his career (one of them a 76-yard touchdown strike). The biggest worry for a fan might be that the Bulls are deep at running back and Quinn is a spread guy, but I can tell you Quinn recognizes what will work for this team. Look for redshirt freshman Branden Oliver to get downright nasty (how’s that for analysis?).
Bill Inge’s defense is going to be UB’s best ever if it can do a good job of stopping the run, because UB fans have been looking forward to this year’s edition of the secondary for a couple years. Davonte Shannon is the best defensive player the program’s seen, and he’s in the back with fellow seniors Josh Thomas and Dom Cook, and freak of athleticism sophomore Ray Anthony Long. Pass on the Bulls? Not often.
So, how do they make a bowl game? They need to pull six wins to be bowl-eligible. Let’s break this down into must-win, winnable, underdog and big underdog events.
Must-win: Tonight vs. Rhode Island, Oct. 30 vs. Miami (OH), Nov. 20 vs. Eastern Michigan, Nov. 26 at Akron
– They simply have to win four home games, and RI and Eastern should be a given. The Rams are far behind the Bulls in skill, and I think UB should have zero trouble this evening. Miami is one of those teams the Bulls must beat if they are a bowl team, and the Zips aren’t projected to be a power this year.
Definitely Winnable: Oct. 2 at Bowling Green, Oct. 23 vs. Temple, Nov. 4 at Ohio, Nov. 12 vs. Ball State
– All conference games with the Temple game being another toss-up thanks to the rivalry. The Owls are good — potentially very good — but they’ll be traveling to Amherst for this contest. The Bobcats are a tough test but are replacing a bunch of players. Bowling Green and Ball State are both solid programs who should be down enough for the Bulls to take care of business if they want to go to a bowl game.
Underdog: Sept. 11 at Baylor, Sept. 18 vs. Central Florida
Baylor’s good, and the game’s in Texas, but that wouldn’t make this a major upset if the Bulls pulled it off. The Bears have a super-talented quarterback coming off an ACL tear. If he’s himself, this one’s a doozie. If not, it’s up for grabs. George O’Leary’s put a solid program together but only beat the Bulls by a nose last year down in Florida. Hopefully the loss of Torrell Troup benefits the Bulls as much as the Bills.
Big Underdog: Sept. 25 at UConn, Oct. 16 at Northern Illinois
– If Northern can get through a non-conference schedule that features trips to Iowa State, Illinois and Minnesota without losing their swagger, they can make a solid run at the title. Throw in the fact that it’s a road game and there could be trouble on the horizon. UConn is a very good program and winning there simply isn’t easy. They’ve beaten Louisville, South Florida, Virginia, Baylor and Cincinnati at home while losing by two to No. 19 UNC last season. It’s the only game on the schedule that looks downright scary.
Prediction: Can the Bulls win all four of their must-win and two of their winnable games or one of their underdog contests? I believe so. Look for Quinn’s first year to feature six or seven wins on the road back to Bowltown, which I just invented and where I would like to live.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
Could Leinart be Buddy’s boy? Bills Deny Report
(WECK 1230) — Could Matt Leinart be moving toward Hamburg instead of Hollywood?
Connecting the dots, if Pro Football Talk had a report that the Cardinals were interested in Arizona boy Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Adam Schefter is reporting that the Bills are looking into Matt Leinart, then they may have an edge on the other teams mentioning in Schefter’s report, the Raiders and the Giants.
Yet the reliable Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com reports that Schefter’s report is erroneous, which genuinely means he’s been told such a thing. However, let’s assume the Bills are playing it close to the vest and proceed.
The trade makes more sense for the Buddy Nix’s Bills and the Giants than Oakland. Sure, the Raiders would be putting Leinart in his old USC haunt, but Jason Campbell is not only an investment they’ve made, but a more proven commodity. Out in New York, he’d be no more than insurance for Eli Manning, but the Giants have Jim Sorgi and Rhett Bomar backing up their prized quarterback. Would Leinart be better?
Forget better than Sorgi and Bomar, how about Edwards and Fitzpatrick. Sure, Leinart hasn’t ever been “handed the keys,” but numbers are numbers.
Edwards- 32G, 29GS*, 61.3 comp, 5498 yards, 24 TD, 25 INT, 77.9 rating
Fitzpatrick-28G, 24GS*, 57.8 comp, 4104 yards, 21 TD, 27 INT, 67.7 rating
Leinart – 29G, 15GS*, 57.1 comp, 3893 yards, 14 TD, 20 INT, 70.8 rating
*In our case, we used games of significance (GS) rather than games started, because Edwards coming in for J.P. Losman against the Patriots isn’t a game started, but he played a ton of it. The feeling is that will average out with the games in which a player is injured early.
There are reasons to try out Leinart, and reasons not to. One of the latter may be PR. Sure, the new guy in town is always a sexy move, but the first time he struggles you’ll see blue collar fans pointing out that when you do a Google Image search on the quarterback you’ll find way more pictures of Matt partying than Matt starting. Not only that, for some reason the media makes a bigger deal out of white athletes illegitimate children than other races, so you’ll hear a lot about Brynn Cameron and their child support woes/battle.
It does seem unfair that a guy that does this in his mid-twenties (which not many do)…
… gets more press for doing this in his mid-twenties (which many do).
Then again, Leinart’s only season with significant playing time was better than Edwards’ first campaign, so perhaps Chan Gailey can do something with the hunk. In two more games, Leinart threw for 900 more yards, four more touchdowns and four more interceptions. Leinart has two years left on his rookie deal, which pays $5 million in each of the next two seasons, so there is more time to evaluate. Edwards, as well as Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm, would be free agents after the season. A big issue regardless is that Leinart doesn’t have a super strong arm, and Ralph Wilson Stadium has super strong winds. Seems reason enough to avoid the move altogether.
So, I wouldn’t be totally against the move since this season is a “feeling out” situation in most fans’ minds. Although, if Gailey is really trying to give Edwards one more kick at the can, then it wouldn’t be right to shake up what is right now a perfectly content camp that No. 5 is their best option… at least from what we’ve heard so far.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
Waiving could be lucky break for Kennedy
(WECK 1230) — Tim Kennedy won’t make his million this year, inking a one-year deal for $550k with the New York Rangers this weekend.
While the move could find him in the minors after a poor year, you’d have a better bet that he’ll make a lot more jack come a somewhat successful year for the Broadway Blueshirts.
Kennedy has made big strides during his second year at every level he’s played (He did not see a second year in the American League). While the NHL is the best of the best, you’d be hard-pressed to convince me Kennedy couldn’t do it in 2010-11. He went from 19 to 61 points with Sioux City, followed by a 19 to 43 point jump at Michigan State.
Kennedy’s offensive numbers suffered during his rookie year thanks to an ill-advised position switch to center, but the diminutive forward broke out of a massive slump late in the year, posting four goals and four assists in his final 15 games. He posted three points in the Sabres’ first-round loss to Boston and, save for one crucial embarrassment versus vet Mark Recchi, was identifiable on the ice (something that couldn’t be said for all of the team’s forwards).
I’d expect Kennedy to have a Peter Mueller-esque year without the first-round status. Line him up for around 15 goals and 30 assists providing he gets time with real forwards and not Derek Boogaard.
Some in the media will contend that Kennedy walked himself out of town by asking for money the Sabres clearly didn’t want to give him, and there’s a bit of truth to that. As we saw with Clarke MacArthur, arbiters didn’t have a real grasp on the whole “hockey” thing this year. As for the Sabres, let’s hope the depth Darcy Regier thinks he has is legit.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
UB’s Simpson steps down; burns Albany
(WECK 1230) — University at Buffalo president John Simpson revealed Monday that he will retire as UB’s 14th president.
UB’s 14th president will only serve 15 days of 2011 before returning home to be close to his family in California, but don’t kid yourselves. The family man wasn’t so much heading home as he was quitting New York State.
“It would be less than forthright not to note that this difficult decision has been made somewhat easier by Albany’s failure to give UB and SUNY the policy tools and stable support needed to fully achieve this university’s great potential,” Simpson said.
It’s been a mere 26 days since Simpson responded to the state’s shunning of UB in their latest budget with vigor, stating,
“Our fight is not over. I am calling on all UB supporters to urge Albany’s leaders to continue their talks and find a way to enact the reforms we need in order to create a better future for Western New York. Together, we must continue to challenge the status quo, to be resolved in our commitment for the future, and remain true to our values, mission, and vision.”
I have to wonder what happened in the last month to lead Simpson into calling it quits. Perhaps he learned his desires for the success of the university faced even more obstacles than what he’s seen in the past.
What’s sure is that this status quo needs more than a challenge… it needs a revolution.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
Preseason Immediate Reactions: Bills 35, Bengals 20
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(WECK 1230) — Some thoughts from press row as the Bills hosted my pick for the AFC title, the Cincinnati Bengals.
– Clifford “C.J.” Spiller is faster than most mere mortals, and overcame horrible blocking on his first few runs to electrify the crowd at One Bills Drive. Twelve carries for 52 yards would be even nicer if he didn’t start off carrying thrice for negative-16. If you haven’t heard our “Spiller” song, check it here.
– Special teams could be a major cause of concern come Week One if we’ve seen any semblance of Bruce DeHaven’s first unit. The kickoff units in general have been brutalized by all three opponents, and I have to wonder whether Chan Gailey’s early talk of allowing special teams-only players was just lip service. Over the past few seasons, Bobby April has been allowed to keep players for their ST service alone. Justin Jenkins, John Wendling, Jim Leonhard and Sam Aiken are gone.
– Gailey called a gem of a drive to get the Bills in the end zone on drive No. 2, but don’t get me wrong — playcalling isn’t anything unless your team executes. Trent Edwards completed some nice tight passes, especially his first nod to David Nelson. The long throw last week was nice, but no one’s going to call him Captain Checkdown if he rips apart defenses with a bunch of 8-12-yard connections. You don’t need to go Uncle Rico and throw a football over the mountains, but being accurate on intermediate routes will help. A completion to Roscoe Parrish despite shooting him eye-lasers was a successful mistake that shouldn’t be overlooked.
– That same touchdown drive started with an 11-yard loss to Spiller, who almost saw Rey Maualuga take the handoff from Trent Edwards thanks to Cornell Green’s remarkable nothingness.
– Not a terribly inspiring first series for the defense, as Carson Palmer was fairly methodical in his offense, his only incompletion coming on a play negated by defensive holding. The Bengals ran each of their runs to the right side at Marcus Stroud and Chris Kelsay.
– Conversely, Spiller had problems on each of his first two runs, which were to the left and outside. On the third play of the three-and-out, the heat came from blind side, when Green was exploited for a sack by pass rushing linebacker Michael Johnson.
Green has been downright awful. In one of those “imagine that” situations, a guy who wasn’t re-signed by an awful Raiders offensive line looks brutal. At the 8:33 mark of the second quarter, with the Bills having two touchdown drives under their belt, no one in my press row could recall a successful play run to Green’s side. Green is the likeliest starter on the field to be a healthy pull by Week Four. Well, at least he’s never gotten in trouble with the law for choke-slamming… Oh.
– Terrell Owens was booed after his first catch of the game, and then the cheers were nearly regular season-style when Leodis McKelvin nearly picked off the next pass intended for No. 81. You’d like someone drafted where McKelvin was to be a starter on your team entering his third season, but I’m not sure the Bills expected Drayton Florence to play anywhere near the level he was at in San Diego after a miserable campaign in Jacksonville. Buffalo has an A-corner in Terrence McGee and two solid Bs.
– I’m starting to see the promise two coaching staffs in Buffalo have identified in Demetrius Bell. The kid can run block and has very good speed for his size. Of course, he’ll have to get over the “Holding, No. 77″ disease that plagued him on so many passing downs during his rookie campaign, as well as a few injuries.
– Owens was good for the Bengals, as he was for most of last year. Lots of folks would excuse Owens last year with the “Look who he has at quarterback” reasoning, and I tended to side with those fans. Today at least, Owens vindicated people in his camp.
– Scary moment when Brandon Ghee injured himself hitting Bills running back Chad Simpson. The Bengals cornerback went helmet-to-helmet with Simpson in the third quarter, requiring an ambulance to enter the field. Fortunately, Ghee came around and walked without having to use a stretcher or the ambo.
Ghee has no one to blame but himself, or the coaches who haven’t convinced the aggressive player not to lead with his head. Just a few plays earlier, he belted Fitzpatrick on the back with a head-first hit, causing my neighbor in the press box, Vic Carucci, to remark that Ghee should see a fine. Now, Ghee is simply lucky he embodies the homonymn.
– James Hardy made a nifty catch up the sideline for 30 yards but dropped a pass as well. Hardy seemed to run his routes well and was open, but clearly he doesn’t have the confidence of his quarterbacks.
– Another wide-out, Naaman Roosevelt, certainly helped his cause again. The UB product will have a massive game on Thursday night while his alma mater kicks off their 2010 campaign back home in Buffalo.
Stat line I enjoyed:
Bills quarterbacks, 19-of-27, 230 yards, 2 TDs
– In terms of quarterbacks… trust in Chan. I believe he’ll do the best he can with what he’s been given, and perhaps he’s knocked some gumption back into No. 5. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a pretty inventive signal caller as well.
Stat line I didn’t enjoy:
Bills third down offense, 3-of-10
– Now 7-for-33 this preseason. For the third-straight week, this part of the game was no good.
Game balls:
Spiller and Edwards
Lastly…
It’s the preseason
Next Saturday:
A short work week could mean a lot of Brian Brohm and Levi Brown against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night. The Immediate Reactions column will be super late (read: Friday), but you like me should DVR the game and go check out UB’s opener. Jerry Davis and the Bulls host Rhode Island at 7 p.m. EST.
More to come: nickonweck@gmail.com
So, the Bills drafted another quick healer?
(WECK1230) — We’ll have to wait until we have the full story, but I have to say this latest Bills injury story certainly bears the “more things change, the more they stay the same” aura.
Marcus Easley is one of the top wide receivers of the Bills very young, or at least inexperienced, corps. It follows that it was a big letdown when he was shut down for the year after suffering a major injury that required surgery.
Little did we know that Easley’s ability to heal is downright Poslusznical.
The National Football Post’s Aaron Wilson is reporting that, according to an NFL source, Easley has healed from his knee surgery and is already off crutches. While it was thought to be an ACL tear, it was not, and Easley reportedly could have returned some time in September.
While the Bills have retooled their strength and conditioning squad, the problem may have been with diagnoses. A couple years back Paul Posluszny healed well ahead of schedule and last year Leodis McKelvin was ready before the end of the year, but were placed on IR and therefore could not return. That’s without even mentioning the shunning and shutdown of Angelo Crowell for not disclosing planned surgery early in camp.
All of this sets the stage for a loud discussion. Who is making these decisions for the Bills? If this isn’t the call of the coach or general manager, then some of the criticism lumped on former bosses should be diluted. Perhaps this happens all over the league, but Bills are healing quicker than most. Maybe it’s their top-notch rehab docs, but whoever is making these decisions needs to be called in for questioning. I’m not sure post-preseason game is the time to ask Chan Gailey who makes these calls, but our answer should definitely come by early last week.
It’s not a major loss to lose a rookie wide-out for the year, as we learned by the limited rookie impacts of Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed and James Hardy a few years back. At this low-depth position, however, it could be a bigger hit for the Bills on a relative scale.
Again, this is just a report, but we’ll continue to follow this story.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
SONG: “Spiller”
(WECK 1230) — When I created this on a lark, I didn’t expect folks would be into it. After all, a listener created one for Ryan Miller a few years back and though I loved it, it didn’t take off.
So, here are the short and long versions of “Spiller,” to the tune of Mike Jackson’s “Thriller.”
Let us know what you think… nickonweck@gmail.com
Gailey Versus the Teens: Where Nobody Wins
(WECK 1230) — When Chan Gailey marched through the throng of reporters gathered to record his post-practice words on Tuesday, he was fuming like a school teacher who heard the peep he requested not be uttered.
The Bills head coach had heard enough from a group of kids reportedly volleying vulgarities and criticism toward the field. The barbs specifically targeted quarterback Trent Edwards.
Gailey told the teens they would not be getting autographs from any players because going after a single player meant they were going after the whole team. Then, the whole team gave the kids wedgies and Gailey bought his players pizza.
Obviously, the last part isn’t true, but the whole scenario is so quirky. Do punks deserve their comeuppance for masquerading as fans and wasting their afternoons being negative? Yeah, for sure. Should the head coach of the team be the guy to do it? I don’t know. It sure as heck shouldn’t have been a player.
Do I like the “get off my lawn” side of Gailey? Yes, for the most part. I just don’t like the thin-skinned appearance of this episode. Grown men should be able to handle chirping from some kids, but then again these kids may have needed to take guff from the coach of their presumably favorite team. Either way, it’s a bad moment in an otherwise completely acceptable training camp.
Fact of the matter is a good season won’t have benefited from this moment, but bad weeks will call things like this to mind in a negative light. At best, this is an indicator that Gailey has his players’ backs, like almost every coach in football. At worst, it’s a “Relax, Grandpa” issue, and that’s silly stuff.
Then again, Gailey doesn’t give a crap… which is what I love about him.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com
Preseason Immediate Reactions: Bills 34, Colts 21
(WECK 1230) — For once, a half of preseason football was fun and productive for Bills fans.
C.J. Spiller showed one of his already elite skills and Trent Edwards inspired double and triple takes with an uncharacteristic deep strike as the Bills rolled over the Colts, 34-21.
The specifics:
– Spiller’s ability to change direction is something we haven’t seen in these parts in a long, long time. While Marshawn Lynch can juke and Fred Jackson can turn on the jets, Spiller’s cuts are ankle breakers. His 31-yard touchdown jaunt was a beauty and you can bet was the main reason play action played a pivotal role in our next point.
– Edwards’ 69-yard touchdown connection with Lee Evans works on a number of levels. For one, the fourth-year quarterback needed to hook up on a deep ball for the sake of game chemistry with his No. 1 wide-out, let alone the confidence it could inspire to achieve such a feat during the course of a game. Going through Edwards game-high long balls has been brutal during the regular season, as he’s made less than a handful of 45-plus yard completions. This one could — I repeat could — be a nice step in a progression for Edwards, who turns 27 in October and was borderline abysmal against the Redskins.
– Stevie Johnson has so far struggled in his attempt to seize the No. 2 wide receiver position, this time only grabbing one ball for a measly two yards. The big man will need to make some moves to separate from coverage in the final two games of the preseason, as the job is still his to lose. Chad Jackson snagged a very respectable five balls for 52 yards to pace all Bills.
– The 3-4 again had its problems with big plays. Indy’s touchdowns were a 17-yard run and 21 and 43 yard passes. I said on the show Thursday that the linebackers have the most learning to do of all the Bills defensive players, and it’s not helping that the unit is among the team’s lesser in talent.
– Bruce DeHaven’s special teams units have a lot of learning to do as well. For the second-consecutive week, those who sung the praises of Bobby April have to be wondering if they’ll need to start hitting up karaoke bars in Philadelphia.
– Joique Bell not only has a fun-to-pronounce first name (JOYK!!), but is proving that he and not Chad Simpson will be the fourth running back once the full stable of backs is healthy.
– A nice night for the UB Bulls program. Naaman Roosevelt hauled in three balls for 22 yards for the Bills, while Jamey Richard got the start at guard for the Colts and undrafted free agent safety Mike Newton made four tackles for Indianapolis.
Stat line I enjoyed:
Brian Brohm, 14-of-21, 125 yards, one sack
– Give the kid credit: If Brohm had hit on a big play or a touchdown, we’d be talking about how he was better all-around than Edwards. No. 4 is making a claim to the No. 2 job, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had better keep it fresh in practice and against his former mates next week.
Stat line I didn’t enjoy:
Bills third down offense, 3-of-14
– That’s 4-for-23 this preseason. Yikes.
Game ball:
Spiller and Bell
Lastly…
It’s the preseason
Next Saturday:
The schedule makers did a favor to the 3-4 by scheduling three-straight solid quarterbacks for the Bills to battle. Look for Carson Palmer to have success and Terrell Owens to find the end zone for the Bengals.
Email: nickonweck@gmail.com








